Suffolk, Virginia 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

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FXUS61 KAKQ 222008
AFDAKQ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Wakefield VA
308 PM EST Sun Feb 22 2026

.WHAT HAS CHANGED...
Snow totals have trended up slightly. Winter weather headlines
remain in effect. Coastal Flood Advisories have been expanded to
include portions of southeast Virginia along the lower
Chesapeake Bay.

&&

.KEY MESSAGES...
1) A strong coastal low impacts the region today into Monday,
bringing heavy accumulating snow, strong winds, and hazardous
marine conditions to portions of the area.

2) A few showers are possible across the Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore Tuesday night. With widespread showers likely
Thursday.

3) Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the overnight/early
Monday high tide cycle, particularly along the Atlantic coast
across the northern Eastern Shore. In addition, large breaking
waves and high surf may contribute to beach erosion along the
Atlantic coast of Accomack and Worcester Counties.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
As of 245 PM EST Sunday...

KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong coastal low impacts the region today
into Monday, bringing heavy accumulating snow, strong winds, and
hazardous marine conditions to portions of the area.

Afternoon weather analysis shows an upper trough aloft diving
from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic region, taking on a
negative tilt. Temps as of 130 PM ranged from the mid-upper 30s
N to the lower 40s S/SE. Rain continues across most of the area
this afternoon. However, rain has already changed over to snow
across the lower MD Eastern Shore with accumulation already
occuring (visible from cameras) north of Salisbury.

The low pressure system is expected to track northeast along
off the Eastern Shore coast later this afternoon into tonight.
As the upper level divergence from the negatively tilted trough
interacts with the surface low, bomb cyclogenesis is expected to
occur later this afternoon into tonight. As the low deepens, the
changeover from rain to snow will progress from N to S this
afternoon into this evening. Additionally, an enhanced band of
precip associated with the upper level system and acting as the
wrap around band for the coastal low has already begun to develop
across west central NC and W VA. This band will continue to
strengthen as it moves E through this evening and marks the
beginning of cooler temps aloft from the upper level trough. As
this band moves E later this afternoon into this evening, the
rates should be high enough to support a quick changeover to
heavy, wet snow across the area. Models continue to show quite
impressive precip rates with this band with the potential for
upwards of 2"+/hr rates (aloft) this evening. These rates should
be enough to pull down the cooler air aloft and allow for temps
to drop to near freezing after sunset. Additionally, even with
wet and warm roads/ground, these rates should be high enough to
overcome the melting, resulting in snowfall accumulations
relatively quickly after sunset. Forecast uncertainty remains
regarding how much snow will actually accumulate as the snow
depth with likely experience simultaneous melting from below
and accumulation from above. As such, while 3-4" may technically
fall across most of the area (outside of the Winter Storm
Warnings and Blizzard Warnings), a widespread 1-2" (locally
2-3") of snow depth is more likely to be experienced.
Nevertheless, these setups (marginal temps with rate-driven snow
accumulation) are quite challenging and surprises are possible
(either over or under performing snowfall totals). Therefore,
will keep current Winter Weather Advisories in effect for now.
If the event begins to look like it will overperform, a short-
fused expansion of the Winter Weather Advisory may be warranted
for the remainder of the FA. Additionally, 12z CAMs show the
potential for a brief burst of ~35mph winds with the snow this
evening. Therefore, brief whiteout conditions are possible given
the combination of heavy snow and wind. Snow tapers off from W
to E tonight, lingering across the Northern Neck and Eastern
Shore into Mon.

Farther E, snow will continue to intensify into this evening
across the Eastern Shore as the low quickly intensifies
offshore. Models continue to show favorable fgen associated with
the low across the Eastern Shore and even show some MUCAPE
reaching the coast. Given the deepening low, favorable fgen, and
favorable upper level support, thundersnow is possible late this
afternoon into early tonight across the Eastern Shore.
Meanwhile, snowfall rates of 2-3"/hr are likely here along with
wind gusts of 45 to 50 mph for most of the Eastern Shore and 55
to 60 mph along the immediate Atlantic coastline. Blowing and
drifting snow, visibility below 1/4SM, and whiteout conditions
are expected with snowfall totals ranging from 8-14" across the
VA Eastern Shore to 12-18" across the Lower MD Eastern Shore.
Therefore, the Blizzard Warning remains in effect for these
areas. Will note that the heaviest snow looks to fall this
evening with up to ~10" possible in a six hour timeframe between
7 PM and 1 AM. Snow continues across the Eastern Shore (and
perhaps the Northern Neck) through the day Mon. However, as the
low moves farther offshore late tonight into Mon, the snowfall
rates are expected to drop with only minimal accumulation after
Mon morning. The Northern Neck is the middle ground between the
blizzard across the Eastern Shore and the lower snowfall totals
farther inland. Snowfall totals here will likely range from 3-4"
closer to I-95 to 4-6"+ closer to the Ches Bay and Potomac.
Wind gusts up to 35 mph are possible here as well. As such,
Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect across this area through
Mon.

Across the rest of the area, snow generally ends tonight.
However, some model guidance tries to bring additional snow
showers inland Mon. Little to no additional accumulation is
expected with these snow showers given low rates and above
freezing temps. As such, Winter Weather Advisories inland will
likely need to be canceled early (potentially as early as
tonight). Will note that Mon night`s lows are expected to drop
into the 20s (low-mid 20s for most) which will allow for
refreezing of any wet and untreated surface. In addition to the
snow, breezy to windy conditions are expected across SE VA and
NE NC this evening into early Mon morning. Wind gusts inland and
across the peninsulas could be as high as 30 to 35 mph during
the system. While across the coastline and parts of SE VA wind
gusts could reach 45 mph. Wind Advisories remain in effect from
7 PM tonight until 10 AM Monday morning for parts of SE VA and
Eastern Currituck County. Overall, these breezy and windy
conditions could result in down trees and damage to powerlines.
They could also result in near whiteout conditions across the
Northern and Middle Neck where the heavier snow is progged.


KEY MESSAGE 2...A few showers are possible across the Northern
Neck and Eastern Shore Tuesday night. With widespread showers
likely Thursday.

An area of low pressure tracks well to the north (across the
Great Lakes and New England) Wed into Wed night. A few light
rain or snow showers are possible across the Northern Neck and
Eastern Shore Tue night, however, confidence is low.

There is a stronger signal for an area of low pressure tracking
across the Ohio Valley into southern New England Thu into Thu
night. Widespread showers are expected ahead of the cold front
from this system with the potential for >0.5" of rain. This
looks to be a warmer system with plain rain as opposed to wintry
weather.


KEY MESSAGE 3...Minor coastal flooding is forecast with the
overnight/early Monday high tide cycle, particularly along the
Atlantic coast across the northern Eastern Shore. In addition,
large breaking waves and high surf may contribute to beach
erosion along the Atlantic coast of Accomack and Worcester
Counties.

Strong onshore flow is expected later today as low pressure
strengthens offshore. As a result, tidal anomalies are expected to
rise, especially along the Atlantic coast and particularly across
the northern Eastern Shore which will be closest to the strong low.
Ocean City has the potential to see high-end minor tidal flooding
with the overnight/early Monday morning high tide. Down the coast,
minor flooding is also forecast at Chincoteague. A Coastal Flood
Advisory remain in effect for Accomack and Worcester Counties
for the overnight/early Monday morning high tide. Additional
Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for portions of SE VA
bordering the lower Ches Bay and Virginia Beach. Tides remain
elevated through Monday before gradually diminishing early next
week.

Seas rapidly build with the increasing NE later today, especially
along the northern Eastern Shore where winds will be the
strongest/remain onshore the longest. Large breaking waves of 7 to
11 feet are expected in the surf zone, with the highest waves at the
Maryland Atlantic Beaches. A High Surf Advisory has been issued for
Accomack and eastern Worcester Counties tonight into Monday morning.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1255 PM EST Sunday...

IFR to low-end MVFR CIGs prevail early this afternoon with light
to occasionally moderate rain with 2-5SM VSBYs. The
precipitation will increase in intensity this afternoon through
early this evening as low pressure rapidly strengthens offshore.
The rain will quickly change to snow everywhere except for ECG
between 21-01z with a few hours worth of snow with 1/2-3/4SM
VSBYs expected at RIC/PHF/ORF before precip ends between
04-07z. The snow will quickly become moderate to heavy at SBY by
mid/late evening. Then, blizzard conditions are expected
between 02-10z as NW winds will frequently gust to 35 kt with
occasional gusts as high as 45 kt. Could see brief periods of
VSBYs as low as 1/8-1/16SM during this time, and have reflected
this potential with a PROB30 group for 0SM VSBYs in the TAF.
Blowing snow is likely at SBY as well, especially after 03z.
Elsewhere, winds become NW tonight and gust to 30-35 kt. CIGs
rise to MVFR at the VA/NC terminals late tonight but 1/2-2SM
snow will continue at SBY through at least mid to late Monday AM
before finally tapering off. Breezy WNW winds continue on
Monday.

Outlook: VFR conditions return later Monday and persist through
the middle of the week.

&&

.MARINE...
As of 305 PM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Dangerous marine conditions develop this afternoon and especially
  tonight due to gale to storm force winds and high seas.

- Storm and Gale Warnings go into effect at 4 PM until early Monday
  afternoon.

Coastal low pressure is rapidly deepening east of VA Beach this
afternoon as the upper trough over the Midwest takes on a negative
tilt. Winds so far this afternoon are generally NNW 15-20 with gusts
25 kt in the Ches Bay and 20-25 gusts 30 kt offshore. Waves have
increased to 2-4 ft with seas ranging from 4-6 ft N and 5-7 ft S.

Dangerous marine conditions are expected to develop over the next
few hours and continue into Monday as the low lifts up the coast.
The low is forecast to strengthen to ~985mb over the local waters
this evening/tonight and ~970mb as the low starts to pull away
around sunrise Monday. All Storm and Gale headlines go into effect
at 4PM. Winds become N to NW this evening and increase to 30-35 kt
with gusts to 40-45 kt. For the coastal waters north of Cape Charles
Light, winds increase to 35-45 kt with gusts of 55 to 60 kt
possible. Peak winds are expected to occur between 7 PM this evening
and 10 AM Monday before diminishing to 20-25 kt with gusts to 30 kt
later Monday afternoon and lingering through Monday night (with the
wind direction remaining NW or WNW). SCA winds are expected to
continue through much of Tuesday morning before finally dropping
below SCA levels during the day on Tuesday as high pressure returns
to the area. Another round of marginal SCA conditions is possible
late Tuesday night into Wednesday and again later Thursday into
Friday.

Waves build to 4-6 ft (up to 7 ft at the mouth of the Bay) this
evening and linger in the 3-5 ft range into Tuesday. Seas will
continue to increase this evening, peaking at 10-15 ft N and 6-9 ft
S early Monday.


Coastal Flooding: Coastal Flood Advisories continue for the Eastern
Shore where Ocean City will approach moderate flood stage tonight.
Coastal Flood Advisories have also been issued for Northampton
County as well as Norfolk/Portsmouth and Virginia Beach with
Lynnhaven forecast to exceed minor flood thresholds tonight.
Additional minor flooding is possible on subsequent high tide
cycles, especially along and near the Atlantic coast.

&&

.AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MD...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for MDZ021>025.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Monday for MDZ024-025.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday
     for MDZ025.
NC...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     NCZ102.
VA...Blizzard Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ099-100.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Monday for VAZ099-100.
     High Surf Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday
     for VAZ099.
     Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EST Monday for
     VAZ095-098-525.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ062-
     067>069-080>082-088-089-092-093-095>098-509>516-524-525.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 PM EST Monday for VAZ064-075>078-
     083>086-090-517>523.
     Coastal Flood Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM EST
     Monday for VAZ095-098.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EST this afternoon for
     ANZ630>638-650-652-654-656-658.
     Gale Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ630>638-656-658.
     Storm Warning until 1 PM EST Monday for ANZ650-652-654.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJB/HET/RMM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJB/RHR